The Duck Curve → Canyon Curve
Illustrative CAISO net load profile showing deepening midday trough (spring day)
Sources: CAISO OASIS data; FactSet, Aug 2025; REsurety, May 2025. Note: Stylized curves for illustration.
CAISO Renewable Curtailment
Solar accounts for 93% of all curtailed energy in 2024
Sources: EIA, May 2025; Yes Energy, Jun 2025; Amperon, Feb 2026. *2025 projected based on Jan–Apr pace.
Illustrative CAISO Hourly Price Profile (SP15)
The arbitrage window: charge at midday lows, discharge at evening peaks
Sources: REsurety, May 2025; Modo Energy; CAISO LMP data. Note: Stylized for illustration.
Negative Pricing Escalation — SP15
Both frequency and depth more than doubled in one year
Source: REsurety, "Negative Prices in CAISO," May 2025; Ascend Analytics CAISO Outlook.
CAISO Battery Storage Capacity Growth
From 500 MW in 2020 to ~17 GW by October 2025 — a 34× increase in five years
Sources: Amperon, Dec 2025; Modo Energy, Oct 2025; EIA, May 2025; CAISO Battery Storage Report, May 2025.
Storage Technology Comparison: CapEx ($/kWh)
Current mid-range installed cost estimates by technology
Sources: Lazard LCOS v9/v10; IRENA Nov 2025; Ember Dec 2025; iScience Dec 2025; DOE; NREL ATB 2024.
Round-Trip Efficiency (%)
Max Discharge Duration (hours)
Storage CapEx Cost Trends ($/kWh)
LFP costs have fallen dramatically; sodium-ion and CAES are emerging lower-cost alternatives
Sources: Lazard LCOS v7–v10; Ember Dec 2025; BNEF 2025; IRENA Nov 2025; iScience Dec 2025.
CAISO BESS Merchant Revenue — Price Compression in Action
Year-over-year revenue decline demonstrates storage cannibalizing its own spreads
Sources: Modo Energy monthly CAISO benchmark reports, 2024–2025.
Poland: "Pre-Storage California"
Surging curtailment on a coal-dominated grid with only 200 MW of BESS deployed
Sources: Gramwzielone.pl; pv magazine Jul 2025; Pexapark Aug 2025; IEO/pv magazine Jan 2025.